This month marks my 21st anniversary in real estate—I got my license back in 2005. I've been through market cycles before, including the 2008 recession when I was actually top producer in my office. I remember 2008-2009 distinctly: showings slowed to one every couple weeks, then by March or June 2009 the floodgates opened and everything sold.

This cycle is different. We're now five years past the peak, with two to three years of constant downward pressure. In many ways, this is worse than the recession—that lasted a year. This has dragged on far longer.

KEY MARKET FACTORS

Affordability Correction Prices shot up way too high, way too fast. A correction was inevitable—it was just a matter of time.

Immigration Slowdown Significant reduction in immigration means many would-be buyers simply aren't at the table right now.

Cost of Living Crisis This is the biggest factor. Everyday Canadians are struggling to put food on the table, so buying or selling property isn't even on their radar. A major driver: what's happening south of the border. Oil prices have spiked, diesel fuel is through the roof, and delivery costs are pushing grocery prices to painful levels.

Mortgage Renewals Creating Supply Buyers who purchased in 2021-2023 at peak prices with excellent COVID-era rates are now facing renewals they can't afford. They're being forced to list, creating a glut in the market that's further pressuring prices.

Global Uncertainty A year ago I thought we might be close to bottoming out. Then came major geopolitical conflict and the whole world got affected—"we didn't see that one coming." Tariffs haven't helped average Canadians either.

PRICE OUTLOOK

I expect another 3-5% decline before we finally bottom out and level off. Here's what will happen when we get there:

• Foreclosures and distressed sales will work through the system
• Stronger-positioned sellers will simply withdraw and wait it out rather than accept low prices
• This will filter out "weaker hands" while "stronger hands" stay put—people who love their homes and see no reason to move
• Reduced inventory will eventually stabilize prices, though not drive them up significantly

RECOMMENDATIONS

For Buyers We're close to the bottom. If you find a property you love, don't hesitate—but don't buy before you sell. Structure your offer conditional on sale of your current property. If sellers won't accept that, list your place immediately, price it absolutely right, get an offer quickly, then make your purchase offer conditional on the same timeline (finance and inspection contingencies aligned).

For Sellers

• Don't wait for spring. List ASAP—ideally second or third week of January. December is traditionally dead, and adding current market conditions on top makes it brutal.
• Don't wait for "better timing." By spring, you'll face more competition and likely lower prices.
• Price right and be patient. Showings are down—maybe one a week, sometimes every two weeks. It's not personal, it's just the market right now.

CLOSING

Patience is a virtue in this environment. I have quite a few listings right now and showings are definitely not what they used to be. That's just reality—we have to deal with it.

Questions? Reach out anytime 416-909-6497

Happy fall—and happy Halloween.